Before Coup

Before the military coup in Myanmar on February 1, 2021, the country, especially the new generations, enjoyed some level of democratic rights in a relatively free environment.

Myanmar operated under a hybrid political system established by the 2008 Constitution, drafted by the military. The military retained significant power, including control of 25% of parliamentary seats (enough to veto constitutional amendments), key ministries (Defense, Home Affairs, and Border Affairs), and security forces.

Civilian governance was led by the National League for Democracy (NLD) under Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, who became the de facto leader following the 2015 elections.

The NLD won a landslide victory in the 2015 general elections, ending decades of direct military rule. In 2020, the NLD again won by a wide margin, further sidelining the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). Nationwide, the NLD won 920 of the 1,117 contested seats across all levels of government. This includes seats in the Union Parliament (Pyidaungsu Hluttaw) and the State and Regional Parliaments.

Relations between the NLD government and the military remained fraught, particularly over constitutional reforms to reduce military power. The military was resistant to changes that threatened its political and economic privileges.

Myanmar's economy was gradually liberalizing after decades of isolation under military rule. Foreign investment increased, particularly in sectors like energy, infrastructure, and manufacturing, as the country opened up post-2011.

Economic benefits were unevenly distributed, with urban areas and elites benefiting more than rural and ethnic communities. Corruption, weak institutions, and reliance on natural resource extraction hampered equitable growth. The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted economic activity, particularly tourism, manufacturing, and agriculture, further straining the economy.

Long-standing conflicts between the government/military and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) persisted, despite ongoing peace processes. The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) signed in 2015 brought limited success, with many groups refusing to join or continuing to fight.

Civil liberties improved under the NLD, with increased freedom of speech, media, and civil society engagement. However, progress was uneven, and laws restricting free expression, such as the Telecommunications Law, were still used to silence critics. Ethnic minorities and activists faced ongoing persecution. The military and security forces remained above civilian accountability.

In the weeks leading up to the coup, the military and USDP made unsubstantiated claims of election fraud, demanding an investigation and refusing to recognize the results, despite no credible evidence and the international community largely affirming the results.

Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), Carter Center, European Union Election Observation Mission, United Nations Special Rapporteur on Myanmar, and other diplomatic observers such as US, UK, and Japan rejected the military's claims of systemic fraud and massive irregularities. The consensus among credible monitors was that the elections, while imperfect, were conducted in line with international standards, and the military’s accusations were baseless.

The NLD also rejected the military's claims and prepared to form a new government.

The coup was staged hours before the newly elected parliament was to convene, preventing the formal transfer of power.

The situation before the coup was marked by hope for continued democratization but also persistent structural challenges, ethnic tensions, and military interference, which ultimately culminated in the military seizing power.